Why Russia Miscalculated in Ukraine: A Self-Inflicted Disaster in Three Acts

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Why did Russia miscalculate so badly in its invasion of Ukraine? The answer is more than two decades in the making. Putin's Persistent and intentional decay of Russia's institutions made it impossible for Russia's intelligence community and military to provide quality information to him. Facing the uncertainty---and wagering that it would take a true disaster for it have a deep effect on him personally---Putin pulled the trigger.

0:00 Introduction
2:01 Putin's Rise to Power
4:54 The FSB Sets the Stage
6:11 How Would the West Respond?
10:20 How Resolved Was Ukraine?
13:59 The Military's Optimism
19:35 Pravda (The Truth)
25:27 Putin Pulls the Trigger
26:32 Russian Success Was Plausible
26:55 Bad Luck
29:05 Lack of Blowback
30:43 The COVID Pandemic
31:24 Putin's Illness
35:19 Easter Eggs

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0):

From President.gov.ua:
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/photos/vizit-prezidenta-ukrayini-do-institucij-yes-i-nato-u-bryusse-2953

From Government of Ukraine:
https://tinyurl.com/bdhajpmt
https://tinyurl.com/2sefhpf9

From Kremlin.ru:
http://20.kremlin.ru/en/2000
http://putin.kremlin.ru/bio/page-3
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/4/photos/5
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/13424
http://kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/UA/events/19852
http://kremlin.ru/news/20604
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/34033
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/39202
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/43928
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/43958
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46507
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49718
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52820
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52948
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54430
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55063
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56997
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57213
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57416
http://kremlin.ru/events/security-council/58065
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58502
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/59455
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60490
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61177
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61467
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62096
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62325
http://kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/55/events/62565
http://kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/55/events/62562
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/63054
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66327
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66762
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67061
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67118
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67514
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67734
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67825
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68254
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68366
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68605
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/69088/
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69101
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69288
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/69308
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/69309
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70314
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70315
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70338
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70341
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70358

From Duma.gov.ru:
http://duma.gov.ru/multimedia/photo/77028/

From government.ru:
http://services.government.ru/press/photos/

Media licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0):

From RIA Novosti:
http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#100306
http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#58833
http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#644461
http://visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#644465

Media licensed under CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0):

From US Secretary of Defense:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/secdef/albums/72177720300677320

From Minister-President Rutte:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/51135196@N05/13446052383

From European People's Party:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/45198836@N04/5555939209

Media licensed under GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Commons:GNU_Free_Documentation_License,_version_1.2):

From Dmitriy Pichugin:
http://www.airliners.net/photo/Russia---Air/Kamov-Ka-50/0920728/L/